The Russian claim that Ukraine was involved in the attack is "totally unfeasible", says international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn.
Speaking on The World with Yalda Hakim, he says it was also "totally predictable" that the Kremlin would blame Ukraine.
Moscow "flooded the zone" with contradictory claims that will baffle its domestic audience and leave them with a "lingering impression" that Ukraine was involved.
There is the possibility the Russians will now use this to justify a mass mobilisation or other efforts they want to bolster their war in Ukraine," says Waghorn.
He adds: "They are going to use this for maximum propaganda benefits."
Nonetheless, the attack demonstrated Russian security was not prepared - the national guard base was close to the concert hall but it took them an hour and half to respond, says Waghorn.
"They could have been there within five or six minutes, even allowing for reaction time, and they weren't," adds security analyst Michael Clarke.
He says he was inclined to think it was not a "false flag" operation but instead a "real security failure".
