Russian Aircraft shot down by Turkey

Hi all Farites. Below is another summarised version of a briefing I gave early this morning regarding the downing of the Russian aircraft on the Syrian Turkish border. Read or discard as you will.

Overnight, a Russian Su-24M (NATO Designation: FENCER) was shot down by elements of the Türk Hava Kuvvetleri (Turkish Air Force) along the Turkish-Syrian border. Although the 'facts' are still fluid at this stage, the downing has been confirmed by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

According to the radar plot doing the rounds, two aircraft in standard two ship combat spread approached and penetrated Turkish airspace in the vicinity of Turkey's Hatay Province and Syria's Latakia Province above the town of Yayladagi. This area is mountainous with this forest. The two contacts were later identified as Su-24M aircraft, an older, swing wing, twin seat fighter bomber similar in appearance to a Tornado but not as capable.

The aircraft were warned to alter course ten times over a short space of time and ultimately penetrated to a depth of approximately 1.3 miles at 19,000 feet. One aircraft bugged out to the south but the other aircraft remained on course and were engaged by two Turkish F-16C Fighting Falcon aircraft flying CAP in the area. At this stage, there are conflicting reports as to weapon engagement with US DOD claiming it was a AIM-9 Sidewinder while other sources claim it was an AIM-120 AMRAAM. Russian sources, loathe to acknowledge inferiority in air to air, claim the aircraft was shot down in an Anti-Air Artillery (AAA) ambush well within Syrian airspace.

The aircraft was seen to burst into flames and enter a steep dive before impacting terrain on the Syrian side of the border. Both crew members were seen to eject but are unaccounted for. Syrian rebels have told sources they fired on the pilots as they descended and there is an unsubstantiated video that shows a possible deceased pilot in Russian flight gear. The rebels also claim they killed the second pilot. The Russians launched a Combat SAR team comprising a Mil Mi-8 (NATO: HIP) and Mil Mi-24 (NATO: HIND) as well as a snatch team made up of Russian Naval Infantry however the HIP appeared to come under ground fire and was forced to land where it was destroyed either by a TOW missile according to the US DOD or a mortar attack say the Russians. Once Russian Naval Infantryman was killed and it can be assumed that the rest of the snatch team and helo pilots are in the wind and attempting to exfiltrate to 'friendly' territory or alternate RVs.

That area of Syrian is NOT a known ISIS impacted area but as discussed previously, Russian elements have been focusing on supporting Assad rather than targeting ISIS although that had been changing since the downing in the Sinai. Syrian government forces had been engaged in fighting elements of the Free Syrian Army in this area of the border recently under the security of Russian air support and Turkey had warned both nations to stop targeting civilian in the Turkmen villages along the border region.

Reactions from Russia have been predictable, accusing Turkey of helping terrorists and saying there would be 'significant consequences' for ongoing relations with Turkey. Turkey, although the problem child within the NATO alliance, remains a full member and this certainly complicated the whole situation. Although Turkey's actions post incident are not normal NATO doctrine, they had recently altered their ROE in the region after Syrian shot down a Turkish aircraft and they stated that they considered any aircraft approaching from Syrian airspace as a threat.

Although relations between Turkey and Russia had been growing, this will definitely end that thaw. Putin will need to be seen as being strong and although we can expect to see increased Black Sea Fleet activity through the Dardanelles without prior notice, I don't think it will stop there. You will see increased Russian aircraft dispositions closer to the Turkish border of far more advanced aircraft as well as Russian fleet elements along both coasts of Turkey. Although the likelihood of all out conventional war between the two nations is small, it cannot be dismissed which with forward deployed US assets, makes this situation very fluid and very dangerous.

You can expect an increased risk premium across energy assets, a more active VIX and a flight to quality in pseudo and real currencies.

Note: All above information is UNCLAS. Further briefing for varying classifications will be notified.