I'll post some numbers to characterise the US market size a...

I'll post some numbers to characterise the US market size a bit.

Here are the numbers from the UK:

So only focus on those 65 and under, as while I suspect we will see efficacy over 65s with a different dosing schedule, it may not be financially viable to dose that often and we can't say for sure it will work.



We can assume that the US has the same hospitalisation rate as the UK per person, which is not true considering that 34.1 million adults aged 18 years or older—or 13.0% of all US adults—had diabetes in 2018 which is a major risk factor (National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2020)

We can ignore delta too.

So someone who is more game than I am can actually work out the estimated average hospitalisation rate across all groups. I will also assume that 'Fully Vaccinated' means boosted which it doesn't, so I'm lowballing again.

Estimated yearly infections [~14% pop. per year based on 2021] x (Population of Age range [ie. population of 60-65 = 20,592,000] x ((vaccinated portion [79.9%] x vaccinated hospitalisation rate [0.56%]) + (unvaccinated portion [20.1%] x unvaccinated hospitalisation rate [5.65%])) = 45,638 hospitalisations per year in the 60-65 age range
assume 6% goes on ventilation (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-use.htm) and therapy is $25k (probably too low) = US$68,457,690 p.a. as a lowballed estimate of market size for patients aged 60-65 alone
+
(next population age range 55-60... etc.

I won't spend that time but someone can feel free. For me, even if I just assume that the average hospitalisation rate is the two-dose vaccination rate - that's so many that I don't even need to bother doing the maths to know that's a blockbuster market opportunity. Only a portion of these will be put on ventilators, but when you're looking at a population of 330 million and you have a high-value asset, it's plenty.

Now consider its use outside of exclusively "Under 65s on mechanical ventilation" and then the market obviously gets bigger.

All this is a pretty rough estimate but as I say, my point is that there's plenty of need for Remestemcel-L in covid-19 ARDS to justify development and investment. Particularly if the NIH funds it.