Many of the PFS studies must be announced in the context of the...

Many of the PFS studies must be announced in the context of the entire PFS so we shouldn’t expect them before June, or earlier as smartdude predicts. Examples that require PFS context are the Mineral Resource update including the expected gold Reserve and of course the financial model.

But the metallurgical test work results could be released before the PFS. Rox already has the ore samples so no more drilling is needed.

Rox has a 6 months timeline to complete the metallurgy test work that should take a month or less. They would be keen to get those results and probably already have them but as a study within the PFS Rox is not bound by ASX Continuous Disclosure rules to release them immediately.

This 6 month timeline for the metallurgy results may seem inconsequential, but it is almost certainly a very calculated and deliberate decision by the Rox Board. But why?

The metallurgy does not significantly affect the profitability of the Youanmi mine. But the results are of high interest to Ramelius Resources (RMS) and other predators. RMS is the TO front runner because their Mt Magnet Hub gold output slumps and the cost of production (AISC) soars from 2026 just as Youanmi comes into production. Also, with a mining camp, airstrip and infrastructure already at Youanmi + a WA mine standard graded road to Mt Magnet for their Penny Gold mine their Capex savings on Youanmi would be significant.

RMS would like to see the PFS but they need a new mine for their Mt Magnet Hub, Rox’s MRE is outstanding with 2.3m oz Au @ 4.4g/t, the POG is sky high and Rox is very undervalued. So only one major obstacle to a TO remains. Can RMS process Youanmi ore at their Mt Magnet mill and at what cost eg add ultra-fine grinding? To work that out they need the Youanmi metallurgy. Rox knows that and is not going to tell them and other predators before June.

With $400m RMS could offer a 100% premium to RXL’s last closing price at 20 cps and a huge premium to the 30 day VWAP to potentially snap up Rox for around $150m. That is their free cash flow just for Q1 and typically they offer ½ cash and ½ shares so $75m cash. Small change! At 40 cps Rox would be bargain considering that Youanmi is likely to generate the purchase price in free cash flow each year from 2026 with blue sky potential.

Rox is deliberately withholding critical information from predators until the share price is much higher after the PFS. That will ensure a higher price for Youanmi but only delay rather than prevent a TO imo.

Just an estimate but around 70 cps = $260m in cash and shares would be ballpark imo.