The market is waking up to the potential of Rox (or are we about...

The market is waking up to the potential of Rox (or are we about to have a new share issue at 20 cps Antietam?).

Regardless, following are some estimates of the upcoming PFS metrics:

The resource targeted for the PFS is 1.1m ozs Au @ 6.1 g.t which is part of a total resource of 2.4m oz @ 4.4 g/t (with very high potential to be increased).

In the Gather Round presentation MD Rob Ryan says he is hoping for 700K to 800K t/pa at 4.5 – 5 +g/t in the PFS. The grade reduction from the MRE to the PFS Maiden Reserve is normal and due to several factors including that development ore (ore drives built to access stopes) is typically lower grade than stoping ore, and the likely inclusion of a small proportion of high confidence inferred gold included in a PFS mine plan and that may have a lower grade along with mining dilution (waste).

Rob Ryan has given us several hints that the feasibility gold process will be bullion not gold concentrate so Rox could use the Albion Circuit or perhaps Ultra Fine Grinding (UFG) and CIL.

From the Scoping Study the Albion circuit has a 95% gold recovery on Youanmi refractory ore and the UFG/CIL should be similar. The mill will have a processing capacity that is multiples of the 480 ktpa capacity in the Scoping Study but likely modest in the PFS and upgradable to save initial pre development expenditure.

The Scoping Study AISC of $1,538/oz will increase to around $1,800 oz Au in the PFS imo.

At a price assumption of AU3,200 oz Au (currently AU3,600+) the AISC margin should be around $1,400 oz Au.

The production target should be approximately 115,000 gold ozs PA and the free cash flow in the PFS around $160m PA + - $20m.

Life of mine (LOM) 10 to 15 years depending on exploration success.

The PFS is just the beginning. By the time Rox gets to the DFS a lot more of the total resource of 2.4m oz will be included in the minable Reserve. Depending on exploration and infill drilling success the global Youanmi resource will also be much higher. Surely Currans and Link etc have at least another 300,000 high grade ozs to contribute making a total MRE of 3m oz Au?

The project will to further derisked but Rox is a potential Tier 1 gold miner in the making with a current market valuation of just $87M. _____________________

smartdude, likely Fisher Gold will be sold but I hope not. Long term holders will recall how well we did with the Cannon IPO. Rox should hang onto Fisher which is now prime real estate that will grow in value quickly with the price of gold. Rox should have a small CR if they need cash before the PFS and then IPO Fisher and Eureka or perhaps with the Lithium prospect (gold, nickel and lithium) later in the year when the POG is predicted to be even higher. Gold fever is rampant and will double the value of a $30m IPO this year, reward long suffering shareholders and encourage our loyalty.

Antietam, Yes the entities with big financial clout who are most likely to eventually fund Youanmi into production want the next CR to be at a bargain price so they can collect oodles of cheap shares. That’s just how it works. I’m more concerned about a low ball TO. Rob Ryan is obviously keen to start a big but expensive drilling campaign including the lithium prospect after the PFS plus the ongoing FS costs. Even if Fisher is sold a strategic share issue to raise cash is likely and will protect against a low ball TO. Rox can really only count on Hawke’s Point, their own shares and perhaps other instos? The company cannot count on the loyalty of most retail holders although that may change with a Fisher Gold IPO. Hawke’s Point hold 10% and wheeler dealer Matt Hogan (Venus) has a much bigger stake with 55m shares ( s7s note: sold for 70 cps Venus would make a whopping profit of $38.5m). To head off a low ball TO Hawke’s Point’s share of the company must be increased even if they get shares cheaply with some dilution of the share registry.