It doesn't matter if there's actually a supply crunch coming,...

It doesn't matter if there's actually a supply crunch coming, and/or a demand boom that eventuates. All that matters is the right people think it's a strong enough possibility and we'll be in business. There's certainly a bull case for copper and not in an academic, abstract sense either.

All industrial metals have had a difficult time for two years. South32 (base metals), Glencore etc. are totally out of favour -- supposedly on weak growth in Europe and China and economic slowdown. Yet markets are at all time highs, and bank shares are at/near record highs in anticipation of rate cuts and a weaker dollar, which is supposed to create growth. A whole lot of growth has been priced in -- which will require loads of industrial metals. Commodities and commodity stocks don't care! It seems contradictory and beats the heck out of me. Like, both things can't be true at the same time. You'd think gold stocks would be at record highs too at the moment but they're unloved. I don't understand it at all.

I suspect arsenic's timeframe may be a little optimistic but not by much. It is tempting to judge the future by past (in)action but a lot of different pieces have been assembled that will eventually fall into place; probably quite quickly once the arby bargy (I just wanted to write that!) has been worked out. Rex isn't just going to make a deal willy nilly