s/p projections, page-20

Squire, there is a risk this well will produce nothing (aka a 'duster').

The probability of producing earnings of $4m p/m is, at a guess, quite low. The basis for my guess is that if the prospect was so prospective and you were sitting on a sure thing, there's no way a cashless ASX minnow such as AWD would secure the rights. They didn't even have the cash to kick things off. So why/how did they pull this off?

Any other small-cap with $30m cash (or secured debt) could've gobbled this up with the outcome being $48m p/a (as per your query Squire). That's an excellent return for any small-cap O&G player.

The negativity from GDN still lingers and as the famous RS quoted "this is as good as it gets". Anything is up for interpretation. In this case, it's the potential of this lease.

IMO, the lease doesn't hold nearly the resource that is being quoted, or there's more to this story.

Good luck to you all.