Can someone please help me understand. There is all this discussion on what shares where traded this week. There seems to be a simple explanation. An explanation that is not bad for existing stock holders. Yet some people want to reject that explanation for much more complex explanation. Some facts. On the 8th the company acted properly and reported the cash receipts for warrants. Since the shares transferred were less than 5% no reporting required for shares. There is a requirement to explain where cash came from so details on shares was there.
For the following example I will round allot exact numbers are not important.
So if another 120 M shares were transferred what is value. There would be 40 Million SH at 3.8 cents. $1.6 M. 80M shares at 5 cents $4M total 5.6M. This company ended half with $8M free cash. Even $2M would be deemed a major change in free cash and would have to be reported. This is major and would have to be reported, just like it was on 8th. Even if company gave them shares and invoiced payment to be paid later it would need reporting.
Now lets look at what Mt K is. They are a hedge fund open to only the most sophisticated investors. ( Sophisticated is a legal term defined by US SEC that has many levels) As such Mt K is exempt from much public reporting. They are not allowed to participate in takeovers Hostile or Friendly. They exist only for their clients to hedge there investments and have greater returns. They do not want to have 5% or more of any company because if they do not only do they have to report all transactions in that company but may open the fund that holds the 5% share to other public reporting. I maintain that the 120 M shares were MT K selling for several reasons.
In the ’16 report and H1 report the company reported no 5% stock holders. The two I rember being reported in the past were NC and Morgan Stanly, may have been others. Both apparently are below 5%. If there is a sub 5% holder other than MtK selling shares in blocks this is bad news for current stock holders. It is good news if Mt K is seller. This frees then up to inject another 5 or 6 M into Lynas without going over 5%.
This is good for Lynas being able to sell warrants whenever cash is low removes a major concern. It is good for Mt K Lets say they sold shares for 8.8 cents. They recover there initial investment of 5 M plus made 6M.
This is such an easy explanation. Cash for Lynas. Profit for MT K. Dilution for stock holders but that happens no matter what. Shouldn’t the stock holders be happier with nice slow controlled selling that is less disruptive to price. When this deal was announced last September many holders were worried that MT K would gain controlling interest. I said then as a private hedge fund they did not want to become even a 5% holder. I still believe this. IT is unlikely that Lynas will be able to raise anything close to US $ 425M in the next 3 years. It is only by being careful that MT K will be able to convert any number of bounds and sell them. Mt K does not want Lynas stock they want cash. The original deal had them getting their money out long before now. Even if MT K only coverts US$50M of their bonds by 2020 it will give Lynas more negotiating power when an extension is needed. If they do US 50 Million in 5 blocks of US $10M that’s 133M shares per block. IF they do all the options, Warrants, by December ’17 that would be one 133M share trade every 6 months. The Question is whether the market can absorb these without depressing the price. The answer to that is how much do REE prices continue to rise. To bring in new money to purchase shares?
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Last
$6.85 |
Change
0.090(1.33%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.421B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.66 | $6.90 | $6.66 | $3.922M | 576.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
26 | 9944 | $6.84 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$6.85 | 775 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 2389 | 6.850 |
27 | 11222 | 6.840 |
19 | 23916 | 6.830 |
9 | 13153 | 6.820 |
11 | 7806 | 6.810 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.860 | 6236 | 15 |
6.870 | 16139 | 18 |
6.880 | 24182 | 14 |
6.890 | 29229 | 13 |
6.900 | 10054 | 12 |
Last trade - 11.06am 09/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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