Zebster, my dear old mate, how are we today (humoristic tone)? Last time I pointed out some things I disagreed with about one of your posts, you took offence and have been ignoring me since then. I have been trying to find that post to show how respectful I was towards you when writing it but it seems HC does not keep posts that far away???? Anyway, I remember I was almost apologetic towards you almost every other sentence but that did not prevent you from being offended. Anyway, I will say it again. You have an oversized ego and believe you cannot be wrong. Of course you can. Even the brightest can. You are certainly one of the brightest here and we are very fortunate indeed to have someone like you contribute on these threads. In addition, I believe that you are someone inherently honest and that makes your posts even more valuable. I believe a lot of SHs here would really appreciate it if you could show more empathy and keep your ego in check. I am amongst the 5% poorer and most stupid persons in Australia whilst your are at the other end of that scale as evidenced by your massive holding at an average of close to 2c and the quality of your posts. Despite this, I believe my advice is a good one. I apologize unreservedly if I have offended you in any way but I assure you this is not my intention at all.
You said:
Now for the bit that may paint a target on my back (for which I simply don't care. My investment funds deployed. My views):
There's been so much bitching, hand wringing, and gnashing of teeth around management's and the BoD's competence here on HC which has, imo, been so utterly misplaced -- presumably based on good old fashioned ignorance. That's not to say that some of it has been without merit (e.g. the apparent disconnect between the management of the restart expectations v. reality). However, most of it is just plain wrong, imo.
You need to understand that people are hurting. Most people base their decisions to buy or sell shares based on what the company and more specifically the CEO is saying. I am not going to go through all the things that PETER HAROLD said that did not materialize. Posters have already discussed this in depth. Peter Harold says that he does not have a credibility issue. But for me, I will find it extremely hard to believe him and so many posters have shared that same view.
To provide a brief example into what I'm alluding to, let's examine the question of the BS restart. I'd encourage serious punters to pull up the 2022 BS BFS and run some very simple rudimentary numbers around how the current spot Ni price of AU$13.40/lb (i.e. US$8.60/lb / 0.64 Fx) affects the BS project's Base Case revenue that was modelled using an average of AU$16.80/lb (i.e. US$11.60 / 0.69 Fx). Now, as a quick-and-dirty, simply apply that 20% reduction to the modelled gross revenue to see what that does to the projected Net Cash Flow which is one of the pillars will underpin the FID (using debt and equity) over the relatively short 4-yr project LOM*. Here's a hint: It's not AU$227m over the BFS any more. Not even close.
Is the number still positive? Yes. Just. But not if the spot Ni price goes below US$8/lb (assuming unchanged 0.64 Fx).Let that sink in for a minute. If anyone is having trouble with that, they should head on over to the PAN threads to see just how much cash you can burn through when you are operating and the Ni price gods move materially against you. In simple terms: Lose a little (by remaining on C&M) or lose a lot (per PAN)? That's the unpalatable choice.
You seem to give credit to management for not staring production based on the Ni price. I think this is disingenuous if this is what you are doing. Probably unintentional but this is how it came across to me. These guys could not control anything under their control. Accommodation, staff, power, metallurgy tests, etc. So, please, don't give them credit for this. Anyway, you picked a moment when Ni price is at its lowest point in your example. But what really matters is the average Ni price we are getting paid. Of course, there will we price fluctuations. Sometimes, we will get great, good and marginal prices. But the price today is not relevant. It is the price we will receive when we sell the product. Now probably closer to 2026 by the looks of things. Who knows what the price will be then? It could be higher, much higher, at these levels or lower. We invested in this company because they said they would sell nickel. They have taken our money and filled their pockets but have not sold any nickel in the last 5 years.
When I look at these folks, I think about them as the mismanagement team in my head. It is really beyond my comprehension how people who have consistently failed to deliver could be managing a company and earning such incredible amounts of money. Why do they not get paid partly in shares? For eg, CJ will earn $400k. He could show his commitment to SHs by taking $200k in cash and $200k in shares. I earn less than $50k pa and have to feed 3 kids. Sometimes, I have bread and butter or plain noodles but I try to keep the children off this as much as I can. I know how to manage money. I am not asking CJ to live like me. But surely, he could take $200k in cash pa until he delivers on the much promised and maligned FID.
Troyus is probably saying that you have a higher probability of finding a dozen unicorns that POS issuing FID. But I don't know as I have him on ignore. But lately, with Peter Harold in charge, this is how I felt. Will CJ be any different? I sure hope so for all our sake.
Again, I apologize if anything I said offended you in any shape or form as this was not my intention. I take the opportunity to thank you for all the high quality contributions you have made over the years. These have been much appreciated and were extremely helpful.
Expand
(20min delay)