I am not so sure about that. Consider this:
Breakeven cost is listed as US$7.50/lb at FX 0.69 = AU$10.87/lb.
NP at US8.50/lb at FX 0.64 = AU$13.28/lb.
7500t x AU$2.41 = circa $40M p.a FCF.
I think it is disingenuous for the company to talk of the NP solely as a function of US$. They are completely keeping silent the fact that some of the drop in NP is being absorbed by a fall in AU$. $40M FCF will be an excellent start IMVHO. In addition, the NP might be weak now but what really matters is where it will be sitting at at the start of 2025. Hopefully, this A+team on these hyper-inflated salaries can realise this. Another thing that has me baffled is to hear the A+ team talk about inflationary cost pressures might bring AISC up but they don't say that the 14% increase in grade will bring the AISC down !!!!!!!! What kind of A+ team does this, i.e mention that the NP has gone down and that there is inflation but keep silent the fact that the AU$ has gone down and the grade has increased massively ???????? AMAZING !!!!!!! INCREDIBLE !!!!!!! UNBELIEVABLE !!!!!!!!
So, on my analysis above, NP, even at these very low levels are providing decent FCF. Hence, I respectfully disagree with the suggestion that NP is the problem. HAD YOU SAID THAT THERE WAS ''ZERO CHANCE OF A RESTART BASED ON THE TRACK RECORD OF THE MANAGEMENT TEAM,'' I WOULD HAVE WHOLEHEARTEDLY AGREED WITH YOU. ABSYMAL PERFORMANCE BY THIS MANAGEMENT TEAM IMVHO. SUPPOSEDLY EVERYTHING WAS IN PLACE FOR A RESTART AS PER THEIR NUMEROUS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND INTERVIEWS AND THEY STILL MANAGED TO FAIL !!!!!!!!!
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I am not so sure about that. Consider this:Breakeven cost is...
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