This post was posted on another thread Russia has signed...

This post was posted on another thread

Russia has signed military cooperation agreements with several Sahel countries, including Chad, Niger, and Nigeria in August 2017; Guinea in April 2018; Burkina Faso in August 2018; and Mali in June 2019.

Niger's strategic importance has grown exponentially for several reasons. Firstly, the country boasts vast uranium reserves. Secondly, France, the US, and Russia are actively involved in counterterrorism efforts in the region. Thirdly, Turkey and the UAE view Niger as a crucial player in their ongoing rivalry in Libya.

In 2021, Russia worked to promote anti-French narratives in Africa and boost its soft power in Mali, the CAR, and Niger at France's expense. With Mali and Chad under military rule, Niger has become an increasingly crucial part of the US and France's Sahel strategies. Niger has experienced a coup attempt in late March 2022, refugee influxes, and a rise in terrorist attacks, enhancing its geo-strategic importance.

The military junta in Mali's alliance with Russia and its strained relations with France have turned Niger into the central hub of European counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. Burkina Faso and Guinea, despite their military regimes, have avoided the sanctions that Mali received from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as they have been granted extra time to negotiate.

The Wagner Group's activities in Mali, which Chad and Niger oppose, may have influenced this disparate treatment. However, as we moved into the end of 2022, Russian media highlighted the potential for Wagner Group private military contractors to be deployed in Niger.

Russia's long-term goal is to prevent Niger's uranium mines from falling into French hands. The coup in Niger has been a topic at the Russia-Africa Summit. Mohamed Bazoum's absence from the summit was interpreted on Russian media as indicative of Western pressure on Africa, a point made by Nikolay Patrushev.

Intriguingly, the coup appears to have been driven more by local dynamics, such as the allocation of resources to the military and disagreements between Bazoum and the military over counter-terrorism tactics, rather than external influences. The Wagner Group's experience in Burkina Faso suggests that they face a challenging road ahead in Niger.

In the aftermath of the coup, Niger finds itself under a new regime. The pro-French president Bazouma has been overthrown, with Colonel Amadou Abdraman announcing the coup on behalf of the army and security forces. The military now holds power, controlling key administrative buildings in Niger's capital.

Amid these events, in a calculated gesture, Putin offered free grain to African countries, especially after blocking Ukrainian exports and targeting Danube and Black Sea ports and grain facilities.

In this evolving scenario, Russia seeks to leverage food dependencies in Africa to build political capital, potentially influencing votes in vital organizations. Putin can also indirectly pressure the West, which needs to make more concessions to prevent a severe food crisis. Furthermore, Putin has leveraged the situation to blame Western sanctions for the precarious food supply situation. With Niger being part of the vestiges of the French sphere of influence in Africa, the stakes are high. Given its uranium reserves & strategic position in the region, a potential intervention by Wagner could have far-reaching implications.