The Russians have been there for some years and in that sense they are no threat to existing mines. However, they are mainly looking for new or not too advanced projects in Mali, which does not rule out that they would not take over more advanced projects if they could.
Since the most advanced projects are partly or fully owned by the Chinese, I do not see the Russians immediately interfering with mines or projects that are partly or fully in Chinese hands.
The Chinese are the most dangerous parties for their existing JV partners and the Malian government is also often a threat to mining projects in Mali.For some situations that order is often reversed, but they will not make each other poorer unless the Chinese commit serious illegal practices.For the time being, they usually do this on a small scale in Mali, less on a larger scale and certainly not yet in Lithium. It is easier to smuggle 1 Kg or 10 or 100 Kg of gold than 100 tons of Spodumene ore. But at the moment I am not aware of any larger Chinese companies that are seriously misbehaving in Mali. Of course, there is no guarantee that this will remain the case.
So the possible adverse factors in Mali at this time are still the same as they were known several years ago. Since the JV with Hainan Mining, shareholders also know that a full takeover by the Chinese is a possibility and now since the full takeover of Goulamina by Ganfeng it is clear that it can actually happen. And that is usually not good news for shareholders.
As for the relationship with the Malian government, it has not yet shown anywhere that Kodal is on the wrong path. Unlike some other mines or projects (both in Lithium and gold)
The development with Bougoula (Direct neighbor of Goulamina) that is now occurring with Uranium One Groupe is something that ROSATOM has been working on for some time in other countries and there will certainly be more countries added. We don't know whether it will be a success, but at the moment the commitment has only just been signed and Moketi's project is still in its early stages. (Started Exploiration in Jan 2021 and Recherche in July 2021 and now in July a renewal for 3 years )
For me, I see no more danger regarding Kodal than before and if there is a takeover bid from Hainan Mining, we will hear about it. Hopefully the situation will not change negatively too quickly and we are now mainly looking forward to the construction of the DSM project, more drilling results, MRE update, etc.
As for the license, it has already been delivered in Nov 2021 and Kodal is now in the process of transferring it to their Malian subsidiary. But due to the suspension of all awards, transfers, extensions, adjustments of licenses for the mining industry since Nov 2022, this is still pending. DNGM's activities will soon resume and the situation will normalize.
But indeed, in Mali there are no longer any certainties on this matter as there were 10 years ago or more. Mali needs money and it has the raw materials to sell or process itself to extract as much value as possible.In what way, the future will show us.
DYOR
GLA
Expand
(20min delay)