sale of zola/bianchi prospects., page-170

Cmon
a few things with your metrics

1. You need to minus value of debt from your oil valuation
2. you need to consider the oil is offshore, govt tax take won't be small , and 4500 per day will quickly taper off. i really ascribe 30 per barrel to nay 2 p oil reserve, with the only expect ion being onshore cooper basin because it has low open and sold as Tapis and thus has about a 85 dollar margin

so if we assume Manora dent ultimate ends up at around 100-105 usd , and minus that from your 200-250m usd valuation and add a 30% discount as it is not yet flowing and derisked then Taps valuation is about right .

the true value drivers are the non core assets and whether they can be monetised to prevent
1. further dilution ( which of course increases market cap at any given price)
2 more debt

Tap has obviously struggled to sell these assets and the double whammy is they will now need funds to further appraise to provide up the value, or farm down which again will decrease the value even if proven up

i truly think TAP is cheap, but its probably as chapter as many others, ROC, HZN, CUE , all of which have less risk at this point in time.

Of course, there is also the risk of the oil price falling away and TAP selling into a lower price environment which may impact DCF greatly.

i have liked this stock and been in and out for the let few years, but at present its not the great risk reward opportunity it was once . the offshore gas assets not being bale to be sold has taken away that valaution safety net .. all said IMHO