In my opinion, most of the downside has been more than factored...

In my opinion, most of the downside has been more than factored in - little or none of the potential upside!
As for turmoil, Thailand has had even worse turmoil in the past and TAP has taken it all in its stride.

As for the potential upside:
1. Manora oilfield once in production is forecast to deliver strong cashflow to TAP. Meanwhile, people also forget that TAP is continuing to receive solid revenue from its 3rd party gas sales
2. Potential (I'm speculating here)for a sale of TAP's WA gas assets - this has been mooted in the past but should the right price come along who knows?
3. TAP also has takeover potential - to some extent this (in my view) is largely on the back of its WA gas assets. The potential break up value of TAP seems considerably higher than the current market value.
NOTE: These are my views only - please do your own research before buying/selling