My turn at having a crack at a sales estimate. I worked out from the latest 4c, retail sales since inception to Sept were about USD$8.8m, and regarding the latest AGM presentation, retail sales since inception to October were just over USD$12m, so a monthly total of USD$3.2m. Walmart accounts for 75% of sales, so they contribute about USD$2.4m. If we divide this by the average price per YOW of USD$2.99, we get about 800k units for the month of October, dividing that by the number of stores we get about 45 - 50 units per week. All without any marketing, and no seasonal surplus, so lets assume about 60 per week in November and December given its Christmas.
There were 9 weeks in Nov/December so my calcs work out to be:
4500 x 60 x 9 = about 2.4m units + the 800k in October so about 3.2m contribution from WAL. Adding on the extra 25% from other channels, we get about 4m - 4.5m in total.
The upcoming 4c will be interesting, and am keen to find out a bit more on the Madeleine arrangement. I note in the announcement they state that they will have access to "high speed, high volume, fully automated and robotically driven manufacturing of the Yowie chocolate candy product" and "provide immediately increased manufacturing capability (up to 100 million units per annum)". My understanding is that YOW own two wrapper machines, which generated about 20-40m p.a in Florida. Can anyone tell me whether YOW will be taking these machines to Madeleine, which will add on to this existing capacity (i.e. 120 - 140m p.a), or whether the manufacturing doesn't in fact include the wrapping, ultimately only initially allowing for 20-40m wrapping capacity, with the intention to upgrade to 100m?
For this upcoming 4c, given that cash receipts lag sales, I'm thinking that the majority of the banked receipts will come from the retail sales value quoted in the last 4c. So if we assume $4.8m / USD$2.99 = 1.6m. Times this by the YOW wholesale price, which is approx $1.50/unit, we should see about $2.4m in receipts. That being said, I'm expecting the working cap to rise significantly on what was reported last quarter, so now c/f positive just yet. In fact I'm predicting a CR or some sort of debt facility to ramp up their capital requirements and their middle east operations.
Just my two cents
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Yowie Management get all of those investors on-board for an oversubscribed capital raising because of the uber cheap price. Retailer investors will be spewing, again.
(20min delay)