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Good breakdown FA, I share your opinion that the numbers will be...

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582 Posts.

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01/12/21

03:36

Post #: 57980648
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Originally posted by FrankieAlfie ↑

This is an important Quarter for the company. A bad quarter and it will hasten a CR and continue negative sentiment.
A good one and they can build momentum leading into HP orders, clinical trials and OTC.
what are peoples estimates for the sales numbers?
My guesstimate is based on :
- as at 27th of October TR sales we're in excess of $500000.
- if the ratio of TR to DTC sales continued from Q1 then we can extrapolate that the DTC would be around $650000.
- so total sales leading into November would be approximately 1.15 million
- if sales track at the same rate through to December 24 an additional 2.47 million in sales would be achieved.
- total sales for quarter would be 3.62 million.
- The best buys B&M roll out happened sometime in November. I'm going to make an assumption that this rollout results in an extra 2 sales per store per week (over 5 week period). That would include another $1 million in sales.
For me I'm expecting a a quarter of 4.62 million in sales approx as a worst case scenario.
id put the range of 4.62 million up to 5.6 million. Anything above that would be impressive.

however I believe this to be very conservative. What I haven't factored in:
- increase in sales due to thanksgiving, Black Friday, cyber Monday and Christmas period. I've just assumed a flat continuation of October sales. It is highly likely that these sales result in a increased result.
- I haven't calculated Boxing Day sales or included last week of December.
- I haven't included additional accessories (39% attachment rate) could be another $500000
- Amazon us sales seem to be showing a small amount of traction. There have been 6 reviews all from mid November. I've not included this but it could be argued that these reviews indicate that there is a larger proportion of sales being made that are not writing reviews. Traditionally only 10% of people leave reviews. So that could equate to 60 sales. An insignificant revenue but it may ramp up.
-HP have slashed prices of elites by 1300 dollars. Now are shipping 1st March. Again insignificant but positive direction
- Walgreens seems to be showing little action (I would note that when you look at reviews actually read them. There are a couple that are positive but give contradictory scores which skews the overall rating)

Further to this I believe that the max are a great product. If others agree with me then "word of mouth" referrals will begin to take effect.
The market has become impatient with Nuh. We have had a sell off that has gone to far. To turn around it needs a catalyst. This quarter sales could be it. If so the news pipeline is extremely encouraging:
- clinical trials
- OTC regulations
- HP orders
- hearing aid registration
- extending into other geographic areas ie Europe...

Nuh is a buy for me.

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Good breakdown FA, I share your opinion that the numbers will be OK this qtr for the same reasons you pointed out. This is usually the biggest qtr and with TR coming back from the dead it's reasonable to assume some decent sales results. Best Buy aren't pushing them because NUH paid for floor space as some would believe, the real $$$ is in unit sales.

Not sure what will happen with HP, but if they are intending on selling buds with the Elite range then you would have to expect at least a small order to have been placed this qtr.

Certainly hope that we get close to your numbers and there is still room for a surprise on the upside, which will certainly feed through to a higher SP after the 4C!

GLTA

Last edited by stocktrade: 01/12/21

NUH Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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