From BTA 29 August ASX announcement: Quote: ”Since the beginning of the Swine Flu outbreak in late April, GSK has indicated that its order book for Relenza was strong and limited only by available capacity, which was being aggressively expanded. Capacity and orders, of course, aren’t sales.”
”Analysts who’ve closely studied GSK’s Relenza expansion plans are forecasting our royalties to be in the range of $80 million and $130 million in FY2010. These forecasts assume GSK’s capacity can be built as planned and that declared government orders actually become sales. They also assume GSK can get regulatory approval for the Relenza Rotahaler.
From the UK order (refer BTA announcement on 30/1/09) 10.6million dozes = AUD18 m royalty. Therefore 1 doze = AUD1.70 $80 m royalty at AUD1.70 = 47 million dozes = 78% of the 60 million dozes p.a before the planned tripling of the production capacity and Peter Cook stated: Quote: ” The $80 million and $130 million forecast would seem reasonable based on what we know at this time”.
Peter Cook could not resist talking down the company share price. Only an idiot could say $80 million seem reasonable when he also stated the fact that Relenza sales was limited only by available capacity 60 million dozes x $1.70 = $102 million, so why bother to triple production capacity.
At $130m royalty at $1.70/doze = 76.5 million dozes Production capacity to 31 Dec 09: 60 million p.a x 6 months = 30 million dozes There assumed 6 months sale from 1 Jan to 30 Jun 10 = 46.5 million dozes = 46.5x 2 /190 = 49% of the planned 190 million dozes p.a.
Put in another way, your idiot CEO is saying: Only 16.5million dozes of the 130million increased capacity (from 60 to 190 million) will be sold, that is 12.7% of the increased capacity.
The main reason why BTA is so undervalued at $2.78 is because your idiot CEO is talking down the sp. Like most of the HC posters, I firmly believe BTA would be a billion $ company had it not been for the idiot.
For those who like to speak up for Peter Cook consider the following:
1) Despite Tamiflu problems, Roche sold 1.1 billion of Tamiflu for the 6 months to June compared to $584.5 million
2) Roche planned to increase Tamiflu production to 400 million dozes by 1 Jan 10 and announced last month they had achieved this. In comparison,k GSK planed to increase production to 190million by 1 Jan 10 and Peter Cook announced in late August – Quote: assume GSK’s capacity can be built as planned
3) The post by 202020 in September had the Japanese health authorities’ figures showing that Tamiflu had again captured 90% of the market compare to 10% for Relenza because Tamiflu Quote “is more widely available than Relenza”.
4) While BTA was suing GSK, Tamiflu had 90% of the market and Relenza had 10% and was limited only by production capacity. Peter Cook refused GSK’s offer to settle for $100m, went on to burn $30m legal costs and settle for $20m. He then blamed the loss on Peter Molloy (the former CEO) and was given 456,000 free share options even after shareholders voted down the resolution to give him the options.
BTA shareholders have done well with the rising share price. However the share price would be a lot higher if not for the totally incompetent CEO.
Please email this post to the BTA directors who are seeking re-election and ask them 1) why they rewarded Peter Cook 456,000 free options against the shareholders vote and why they are still supporting a CEO who is talking down the share price
2) what are their opinion of GSK's performance - why are they so happy with GSK?
BTA Price at posting:
$2.78 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
