Sales projections

Hi guys and gals, have created a sales projection and cash flow analysis projection to see where and when we might need bridging funds to bridge to break even. Again the below is aided by AI and to be seen as a mere estimated projection.--OncoSil is entering a phase of transformation, driven by strategic market entries, expanded operational capacity, and regulatory approvals. The combination of these catalysts is expected to trigger exponential sales growth, with monthly device volumes climbing significantly by mid-2025. The increased adoption of the OncoSil device will not only enhance the company’s revenue but also solidify its position as a leader in delivering innovative cancer treatment technologies.

OncoSil Sales Projections: Unlocking Growth Through Strategic Catalysts

The future for OncoSil looks incredibly promising, with numerous significant developments on the horizon poised to drive substantial sales growth. Key milestones, market expansions, and regulatory advancements are set to redefine the company’s financial trajectory, marking a pivotal moment for its business model. Below is an analysis of the projected changes and their potential consequences for sales and revenue.

Key Catalysts and Developments

1. Regulatory Milestones and Market Expansion:

   • G-BA Trial Completion and Reimbursement in Germany (Oct–Jan 2024/25): German hospitals will gain the ability to negotiate reimbursement under the innovation funding program (NUB) for the OncoSil™ device, paving the way for treatments to begin. This regulatory milestone is expected to accelerate the adoption of OncoSil in one of Europe’s most significant healthcare markets.
   • Regulatory Clearance in Saudi Arabia and South Korea (Dec 2024–Feb 2025): Both regions are preparing to introduce OncoSil devices into their healthcare systems. With clearance anticipated soon, treatments in these markets are expected to begin as early as February 2025, providing access to high-demand international markets.

2. Operational Scale-Up:

   • Sydney Facility Supply Expansion (May 2025): This operational milestone will significantly enhance OncoSil's production capabilities, supporting the growing demand from existing and new markets.
   • Label Expansion Approvals (June 2025): Anticipated approvals from TGA (Therapeutic Goods Administration) in Australia and further enhancements in delivery mechanisms, such as percutaneous delivery, are set to broaden the device’s applicability. These advancements could increase market penetration and boost revenue streams.

3. Unit Volume Growth:

   • Unit sales are projected to ramp up materially following onboarding activities in new markets and expansion efforts in existing regions. By mid-2025, monthly device sales are estimated to reach 13.5 units, compared to just 3.0 in October 2024. This exponential growth reflects the anticipated success of strategic initiatives. However this could be much higher.

Revenue Implications

• Quarterly Sales Projections:

  • In Q4 2024, OncoSil is projected to sell 10 devices, generating AUD 125,000 in revenue.
  • By Q1 2025, sales are expected to rise to 17 devices, translating to AUD 199,085 in quarterly revenue. This growth aligns with the onboarding of new regions such as Germany and South Korea.
  • By Q2 2025, device sales could reach 28 units, driving quarterly revenue to AUD 341,613—a nearly 300% increase in just six months.

• Revenue Acceleration:

  • The steady expansion into high-demand markets and the introduction of operational efficiencies are expected to result in a dramatic revenue increase, culminating in monthly revenues surpassing AUD 162,000 by July 2025.

Operational Cash Flow and Strategic Resilience

1. Capital Receipts and Cash Flow Optimisation:

   • A strong cash flow buffer is projected due to the AUD 8 million capital raise received in November 2024, ensuring operational resilience as the company scales production and enters new markets.
   • Expenses remain controlled at AUD 1 million per month, demonstrating OncoSil’s ability to sustain growth without overextending resources.

2. Strategic Use of Funds:

   • The capital raise will fund critical onboarding and market entry activities, supporting rapid device deployment in newly approved regions and ensuring robust supply chains as demand grows.

Conclusion: A Transformative Year Ahead

OncoSil is entering a phase of transformation, driven by strategic market entries, expanded operational capacity, and regulatory approvals. The combination of these catalysts is expected to trigger exponential sales growth, with monthly device volumes climbing significantly by mid-2025. The increased adoption of the OncoSil device will not only enhance the company’s revenue but also solidify its position as a leader in delivering innovative cancer treatment technologies.

For investors, this shift represents a long-term growth opportunity. As new markets come online and existing ones ramp up, OncoSil is poised to unlock its full potential, delivering both improved patient outcomes and robust financial returns.

Disclaimer:
The information provided in this analysis is based on publicly available data and private projections by the author. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, these are estimates and should not be taken as financial advice.