Sales revenue discussion

Hi folks, I thought I'd just start a thread dedicated to a discussion on sales revenue and where we think it might land for the the next few months through to end of June, and then onwards.

I'll start off by sharing the month on month sales figures for in the U.S.:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	Month	Revenue ($m USD)	% change on prior month
1	Jul-21	1.95
2	Aug-21*	1.91	-2%
3	Sep-21*	0.66	-65%
4	Oct-21	1.47	123%
5	Nov-21	1.95	33%
6	Dec-21	2.43	25%
7	Jan-22*	2.54	4.5%

*Note that the figures for August and September were not provided by the company, but were derived from a bit of calculations  based on various announcements they'd made about Q1 revenue, revenue for July of $1.95USD.
*The figure for January is also an estimate - with group BTM sales revenue being $4.05m AUD, and an estimated 87% of BTM revenue coming from the U.S and assuming a forex rate for AUD-USD of .72.

If anyone believes they have been compiling more accurate figures, I'd welcome you to share it.

Discussion:
You can see from the data they started the year well, before sales fell into a hole in September (seasonal factors? covid lockdowns and surgery cancellations?), before building up again.

Questions - What is notable is that we have had four consecutive periods of month on month growth. Do you think this will continue through to the EOFY or CY and why?

In my model, if they can continue to achieve 5% month on month growth for the group, they will hit about $43.7m AUD which would beat analysts estimates for BTM group sales revenue of about $38m.

This would translate to growth in the US by quarter over the pcp as Q1 23%, Q2 103%, Q3 99%, Q4 89% for the full year.

The challenge is obviously to continue the strong start they have made to Q2. The scary thing is if they have another month or two like September.

I have some more points to add, but I'm more interested in hearing the thoughts and approaches people have taken to do their own analysis for both the short term as I have laid out above, but I'd also welcome any analysis or approaches people might have applied for the long term.

If anyone has done any work on linking their estimates to staffing I would be most interested.

This is just a thread for discussion to share and think about the range of approaches people use, not to point who is wrong or right or what is better - this kind of analysis is most likely just one part of people's approach to analysing the business as it is for me.