"They've already banked $4m in Jan22, so for the 5 months to Jun22 they need on average $4.5m in sales each month."
I feel like this is a very achievable target.
"if they start posting $5m or $6m months, then you'll know they are on track to post a positive cash flow for FY22.."
In my low case modelling, I expect them to hit $5m at least once late in the financial year. My bull case points to them getting close to $5m in sales by the end of March, but punching through that $5m month by April.
Pre-covid figures suggest that December, January and February have been comparatively weaker months (in FY18 and FY19, the Dec-Feb period was the worst rolling three month period) - yet December and January sales for this FY turned out to be quite strong, and it was interesting to hear management say in the conference that February was tracking well.
If they are doing this well through so far in what has been historically slower period even pre-covid, and those past trends can be applied - we are set for some big months in March-June.
Bear in mind - the old figures were working off a very low base, and while MJ suggests the lumpiness is smoothing out, I suspect there will still be some little bumps for the next 12 months.
PNV Price at posting:
94.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)