Just read the old Paterson's valuation advice from a month ago...

Just read the old Paterson's valuation advice from a month ago written by Matthijs Smith. In it they value BTA at $1.30 based on a vwap of $0.54 to which they add $0.66 for stockpile sales of 2.3 million packs from a DCF analysis.

They are entitled to their conclusions based on their listed assumptions and I have no comment on either except that since the analysis was published the confirmed stockpile sales have increased from 2.3 million to 20 million and we have also seen enough reports from GSK to indicate that they are now in a blind panic opening multiple plants to contend with the mass of orders.

Based on the Paterson analysis then the added BTA share value ought now to be $5.82!

I would therefore dearly like to read their latest missive on the subject!
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They still place the lead LANI CS-8598 several years away with nebuliser delivery but don't mention the obvious pandemic accelerated injectable route that may well be only 3 years off. Sankyo is after all now manufacturing the material for clinical trials. As it is fully 10 times better than Peramivir (in terms of measured bioavailability from a given dose) I suspect it will be fast tracked by the FDA as a matter of priority. We will probably see a commensurate reduction in Tamiflu market for other than "normal" flu starting in 3 years, or at the end of the current stockpiling events. Doubt Tamiflu stocks will be replaced at the end of their current shelf life with more of the same.