ALF 0.00% $1.01 australian leaders fund limited

Much has been said over recent share price performance. All of...

  1. 1,751 Posts.
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    Much has been said over recent share price performance. All of it true. The investment strategy and performance has been nothing short of appalling. I defend neither JB or GW.

    On the flip side, I put that 6 years ago the company traded at a premium to NTA providing an excellent opportunity to offload or reduce. No one could have foreseen the under performance but when someone offers $1.10 for every dollar in your pocket, surely that is an offer too good to refuse?

    Having believed the market to be hopelessly overvalued, I have generally felt pretty comfortable with a net neutral fund position. Have made a couple of dollars selling at a premium to NTA, I have been a heavy accumulator over the last 18 months including more today. (Selling into the buy back at $1.0 -$1.11 and buying at 99c, seems to be pretty simple maths to me. If I have to wait 2 years to realize the NTA gap, that's still heaps better than money in the bank. Should markets actually tumble, I expect ALF will do OK, especially relative to long only LICS.

    Am I happy with ALF? No. Can I see a relatively easy 3-5 trading position buying $1 for 85c and carrying not a lot of downside? Of course.

    None of us can change our past decisions, we must accept the outcome, good or bad. However, that does not mean we can't shape our future outcome by decisions we are able to make or action today. I have made more than my share of bad calls over the years. That said, ALF is not one of them, it has been good to me.

    Of course I want out, being a precious metals buyer over the last 3 or 4 years has been bloody painful. I bought for the same reason I want out of the market, it will end badly. In a matter of just 8 months, dumb investing in metals, has made me appear much smarter than I am. As a high conviction investor have eaten humble pie on many occasions, but ended up doing pretty well.

    To all LTSH hang in there for ALF. There is a chance DTA will become real assets and there is also a fair chance NTA will stabilise or increase. I see a 15% - 20% return (incl dividends) if the fund can retain its current listed status for another 6 -12 months before restructuring. I do not see the Board rushing to the capital management table just yet. We rely on JB getting things right for a change (much to collective frustration), but even a clock tells the right time twice a day, his turn (for our benefit) must be close.

    GLTAS, especially those recent holders who have seen nothing but capital destruction. You should end up getting close to a dollar for every dollar of NTA.



 
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