Assumptions:
ADX completes capital raising before drilling to secure cash - 20M shares.
Shares: 212M (after 20M for capital)
60% of Sambuca with P50 270Mbbls
Recovery 40%
Total P50 108Mbbls
Chance of success
10%
NPV
A$1080M @ A$10/bbl
Risked NPV
A$108M
ADX risked NPV
A$65M
ADX risked NPV/share
$0.31/share
Provided rig is confirmed for latter this year would expect ADX to trade closer to ~30c/share once rig is position.
Also has Chorbane and other permits for jv.
sambuca pre-drill estimate 31c/share.
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