same old problem, page-4

robworld,

Guess it all hinges on how 'locked down' during negotiations you perceive SPH to be.
Stakes are pretty high and my view is that SPH is giving very little away during negotiations leaving the market to second guess possible outcomes.(including ourselves)

If you regard SPH as typically'leaky' then sp should be ahead of announcements (for better or worse).
But consider the rise to $1.40 prior to initial bid closing in October. This would indicate the market was 'aware' of an imminent offer. So much for efficient market theory in that example!

So I would suggest the relatively modest (29%) sp rise in last few days is due to SPH wrong-footing the market in Oct. Market was obviously too optimistic then, and as a consequence, a little too cautious now.

FWIW my gut tells me they have solid interest but want absolute top dollar and are prepared to weigh up all options very carefully. If that means keeping the market 'in the dark' to protect sensitive negotiations then so be it...