Yep Rupe...its all about Monash $$$We all despise Monash's curve...

Yep Rupe...its all about Monash $$$

We all despise Monash's curve ball's etc...BUT ...read the ASX ann's....its all about Monash - like it or not its about a multi-decade relationship. This does NOT excuse Monash's multi month muggings...however if ECT were in serious pending binding negs elsewhere...we would know yonks ago via the ASX or the sp action.

I see one of 2 scenarios happening pre Mar 19 - with massive deviations likely!...

1/ This is the one we need - the grand daddy that would launch a market darling. A VERY firm strong binding RFP with solid $$$ accounted for with a leading partner that reeks cred. Unfortunately our leading partner - Monash - has messed up bad.

A relative of mine (huge holder) has close links to the senior Vic govt levels. His view is atm Monash's standing with the Govt would be toxic. The only way Monash is going to detox is to pump convincing $$$ left right and centre.

Yes - the CDP actual $ dont have to materialise until later this year...but cred/trust is what is at play here and....Monash have near zero atm. The next thing we will hear is Chinese New Year 10-24 February has halted things.


2/ A "conditional on Govt Funding" type of submission...ie - hey Govt its x, x and x here - if you grant ECT $35m...we will endeavour to source finance. Yes - ECT will still be in the race...but obviously its not ideal. And between now and mid-June it would be a torturous wait.

IMO - even in this "worst case scenario", likely majors will be tripping over each other to invest IF ECT gain a significant ALDP $$$. I reckon Monash know this....quietly.

An issue with 2 is we will be in the sp never never till mid-June maybe. If folks can see a definite ADVANCED alternative to Monash 1...we are all for it. Competition is good. However - imo Monash neeeed ECT just as much as we neeed them.

Now over to the optimists/dreamers what ever (maybe realists?) - WHY have the Govts called the Mar 2012 Pilbara - (co-incidences aside)? Sure ppl could say IF Coldry was the centrepiece backers would be lining up.

Maybe they will?

"Too big to fail" is my overall ALDP mind set - the $90m is allocated, locked in ...and I still reckon Coldry will be the centrepiece drying mechanism. DPI Dec 18 ann 13B tonnes on track to be allocated - coinciding with ALDP recipients..?

ps...re Exergen. Ok - the ALDP process is supposed to be designed to help those poooor lepers like Coldry....soooo tell me:

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_tata-power-eyes-stakes-in-green-tech-companies_1681670

"Tata Power had recently bought stakes in two Australian firms—a 5% stake in Exergen for $10 million"

Fact is Exergen's 5% (and others paid the same apparently) values Exergen at ~$200m

Now Mr ALDP allocator of the $90m - Can you look us in the eye and state Tata etc CANT fund the Exergen demo WITHOUT ALDP hand outs?..

Mr ALDP allocator of the $90m - imo Exergen should get a token say $10m at best and leave the rest for the true "lepers" like LV pilot plant shovel ready Arup DFT focussed Coldry.

tick tock...