same road, page-14

Been a long time since I have posted so just thought I would add my thoughts to this conversation.

Firstly, let me say that I am a big believer in this company and what I believe will unfold into a success story.

In my opinion, the SP has struggled with traction in the face of nothing but good news announcements due to the uncertainty around growing from explorer to producer. The company has stated that the preference is to fund from money from Vale.

Will Vale come up with the goods, well know body knows for certain. Will they need to go to plan B? What is plan B and it's details? I am sure that there is a plan B but until the market is aware of it, it is still uncertain.

The macro situation we all know about. In the past it was enough to be an explorer pinning holes with great hits to get the market excited and eventually be rewarded with a profitable take over by a bigger fish. However, with commodity prices fallen from their highs the big producers have also had to reign in their expansion plans. Therefore not as easy to do deals.

Sounds all very depressing doesn't it? However, what this situation does do is present great opportunities and makes AVB a very good risk/reward situation. The market has fallen back in love with yield chasing which leaves the likes of AVB unloved. For those willing to accept the risks the rewards could be excellent if it plays out to plan.

I think to market has marked AVB as a Hold until to uncertainty becomes certainty. I can't say which way it will play out but my skin is in the game and happy to accept the risks for the potential rewards.