Well ole T. Boone was half right ... he predicted $70 oil end 2015 back around July '15 I think. Now around $35. Think Harold Hamm was somewhere in that vicinity too.
Sure the under investment in E will hurt the P in later years. Missing from Kyle's view is OPEC (which does not count Iran production in its quota) has increased production so the US dropoff from shale decline is more than accounted for, Iran sanctions being lifted adds a couple of MMbopd (unless of course that was already all accounted for in black market transactions) and of course Saudi Arabia themselves forecasting a Brent $37 for 2016 (and raising their in country price of gasoline by 50% to reduce the very large deficit).
Even with all the appetite for SUVs (these new vehicles are very fuel efficient compared to the replacement vehicles) relative real demand growth (not the absolute growth number) reads like a slow decline.
Meanwhile, how many people do you know are complaining about the price of gasoline at the pump. Why people would happily pay the equivalent of $4/ltr for a drink and complain about $1.50/ltr for gasoline is beyond me given the costs involved to finding, developing, refining and bringing to market gasoline.
At some point supply/demand/price points have to balance - and when that happens there will be big winners. Just who they are remain unknown.
Like Kyle, being "dogmatic" has cost us all some capital.
SSN Price at posting:
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