re: san antonio well-condor??? This statement is part of why I...

re: san antonio well-condor???
This statement is part of why I hate VPE and their ilk.

"Giligulgul-1, with 16 million barrels of potential Oil. I am no geo. but that sounds like a better than a 50%++ probability that there is oil down the hole. Any comments from Geo.s out there. If this statement is true then VPEs calculations are looking interesting."

I'm not a geo, but I know weasel words when I see them.

"Potential" oil - thats P10 'possible' numbers, not P50 'probable' numbers. Also, is this recoverable oil, or original oil in place ? They dont say. Finally, you've missed the implied sentence "If hydrocarbons are present" ... reserve estimates cover what they expect to be there, given the size of the pocket predicted by seismic etc, and dont say how probable the hole is to hit.

To put my translation in laymans terms, "If oil is in Giligul , and if absolutely everything goes right, there might be 16 million barrels there. But we arent saying how much of that we think we can get out."

What I want to see is a standard required-by-the-ASX reporting format that is something like this ...

"If hydrocarbons are present, Well X is estimated at between 2mmbl (P90) and 10 mmbl (p10) with 4 mmbl probable (P50) oil in place. We expect that 35% of this to be recoverable oil."

Ian Whitchurch