If you compare charts, the second half of calendar year 2015 looks very, very familiar to the second half of calendar year 2011. Regarding the current date, my guess is the Santa rally has been in swing now since Dec 16. A 200 point gain in just 6 days so far. Those who bought the index in recent days will be laughing I think, because my second guess is this is start of a new long-term consumer driven uptrend resulting from combination of low interest rates, low oil/petrol prices and low inflation environment. The low oil price is a huge economic benefit overall, particularly for Asian countries such as China.
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If you compare charts, the second half of calendar year 2015...
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Peter Batten, MD
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