Hi All,
Great to see the thread become sensible again. Well done to all the recent contributors, Hardmano, Homeales, HotKiwiPav, Whiskey, Cobra, Insaf, Wasa - awesome posts!, well done and thank you from all holders for your contribution.
So, looks like we have some presents about to be unwrapped soon. In best guess at order;
1. *ASX 300 induction - based on market cap and cash reserves, excluding our instability, will we make it in December?
2. Farmout of L6 to ? January
3. SNE-1 - Deadline for appraisal and plans around wells - prior to 18th Feb for appraisal plans. 77 Days from today.
4. FAN-1 - Deadline for appraisal and plans around wells - prior to 18th Feb for appraisal plans. 52 Work Days from today.
Realistically point 3 and 4 could come at any time, with Cath's update in early November saying we should see more info around the results in 4-6 weeks, I took out any updates from the list as realistically we could see a couple updates around these at any time. (Tim said we will see an update soon, months ago)..
77 days at the very outside for our major news doesn't seem like a long time to me. Anyway you look at it - we are sitting on a multi-bagger whose potential is close to being stepped up.
To fulfil my Excel addiction, I have the following table, changes I have made;
- I have adjusted the NPV of Oil against the Brent crude price by multiplying the NPV (as stated by Cath at $100 USD) of $10 and $15 for FAN-1 and SNE-1 respectively against the Brent crude as a percentage of $100. i.e NPV X .7294.
- **The exchange rate has been modified to $1.18 per $1 USD.
- Recoverability for SNE-1 at 100% per PRMS rules. FAN-1 at 35% per Tim's guidance of between 30 and 40%, realistically recoverability could be significantly higher.
- Kenya is not adjusted for post FARM out percentages, you could ignore a lot of the Orange section as it will change no doubt.
Anyway, if and when (more-so when) we see our finds redefined as commercial - anyway you look at it, 31 cents (at an adjusted per barrel oil price), is a handsome return on the bargain that is 8.6 cents per share today.
Hang in there FARITES -
77 days is not a long time / 52 work days.
*BTW, I changed ASX200 to ASX300 - obviously baby steps first.
**Something else to think about, whilst we have seen the price oil oil reduce, conversely we have seen the Aussie dollar take a bath against the USD. We are down more than 20% over the year or so. I believe that the AUD will further deteriorate against the USD over time - this means any weakness in the price of oil will be balanced against the degradation currency wise for overseas investors buying into FAR based on our currency degrading.
Enjoy all, I am as excited as ever.
To anyone sitting on the sidelines - I think FAR is an amazing buy at this pricing, with less than 77 days, or 52 work days to await significant news and surpass a whole line of catalysts.
Oil will rebound in time, notwithstanding we have easily accessible Oil in a developing nation that should be very economical to recover for a number of reasons.
Good luck to all, not long to wait. Santa might not deliver all his presents at Xmas but not by long
(20min delay)