Santos’ focus on its back-fill strategy also puts some greenfield projects under increased doubt, Morgans suggests, such as Dorado.
Citi is similarly less confident on a timely FID at Dorado and hence pushes the timing out to 2027 (from 2026) and removes Dorado from its financial forecasts.
UBS has pushed out the Dorado development to beyond 2030 with only Papua LNG and modest backfill opportunities in PNG LNG from the unsanctioned portfolio in the broker’s forecast to 2030. While this reduces estimated valuation slightly, it allows for much stronger dividends and free cash flow from 2026-30. https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/11/25/santos-shifts-from-growth-to-shareholder-return/
CVN Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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