santos presentation., page-28

One of the very important issues is the needs of the buyer.

There are always two parts to a negotiation - the needs of the seller, and the needs of the buyer.

I would have to check, but was there ANY discussion in the IER about Santos' need for the gas? Any discussion about the current reserves in GLNG, the requisite reserves they require, and how they are contractually bound to deliver a certain amount of LNG to their customers, ready or not?

So, when Santos is risking EVERYTHING on GLNG, a huge capex project, is there any consideration about what Santos would do if they can't secure extra gas? Where is the analysis of Santos' requisite gas flows in order to meet their GLNG commitments? What about that 'extra 750PJ from the Cooper basin, that in small print they admit is only partially 'uncontracted' (so, in other words, they are double-counting existing commited gas), and part of which is not even in the reserves category.

What if those 1/100 year floods happen twice in 5 years? What if Santos' "ultimate 2P upon maturation" does come before GLNG starts delivering LNG? What if GLNG does not get that much gas out of their field? (And, the idea that NSAI can predict Santos ultimate 2P to 4 significant figures is a statistical joke. Nothing is that certain about the future, nor that exact, and shouldn't pretend to be.)

The IER doesn't seem to pick holes in Santos and where their vulnerabilities are. You could write book about important facts and concepts that really should be in the IER, but are not. History, and IER's are commissioned by those who want to achieve a certain result. As accountants joke, "what would you LIKE the numbers to say?". I could write 5 IER's and come up with 5 different results, all of which would sound pretty darn convincing and could be backed up with a fair bit of evidence to supported a given price or conclusion.

But, to be honest, I am over it. If ESG has the goods, another bidder will come. If not, I can move on. Santos themselves are going to be bid for, so there is value in life after ESG...

Yaq

p.s. I wonder in BOW's IER, whether there will be any discussion about how Shell will reach their planned 4 LNG Trains, when they only have enough for 1.5? Probably not.