What a suitor is buying when they make acquisitions IS FUTURE INCOME. It doesn't matter what you buy.
So when Santos buys (merges with) ESG, what they are buying is the current reserves, PLUS the contingent resource upside. it is all about reserves, but not just the current reserves - It is about what the reserves tell you about what you can do with the contingent resources going forward.
Value is never just about the hear and now. As Santos title their presentation, it is about:
CAPTURING THE FUTURE
An asset is valued on the basis of its future earnings.
If not, hand over all the ground not yet included in reserves to Yaq Enterprises Pty. Ltd, and I will happily own it. Because, if it has no value attributed to it, and ESG is getting no value for it, where is the harm in that?
Santos know that, based on the current reserves and other data from the data room, lots of money and drilling and the markets that Santos or others can provide, a buyer can upgrade large amount of that contigent resource to reserves.
This presentation is REALLY rubbing our noses in it:
"Here is a photo of me with your missus. Here are the brochures of where we are going to go on holidays, what I plan to do with your kids, and here is a sample of some of the intimate home movies we plan to make."
Santos' share price is so sick, so heavily shorted, that not only are they a target in their own right (I wonder how Shell are going to get to 4 Trains without Santos/ESG, and spinning out some non-LNG assets to placate the ACCC)? But more than that, Santos scrip is so sickly that the SoA looks all the less compelling. There simply is getting less and less a reason for voting yes by the day...
Santos and ESG will have to pull some major rabbits out of the hat to get this across the line. it may even take a bid on Santos to do it.*
Yaq
btw, in the last 5 trading days, I have seen % shorting of Santos at an extraordinary 52% and 37%... not even ESG was subject to such a viscous shorting campaign. I can sense something coming...
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What a suitor is buying when they make acquisitions IS FUTURE...
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