CS do have a poor record in predictions as Sams wrote.
I read the article and it was just an analyst playing around with the inputs, namely oil price and FX rate, extrapolating them at their current rate (maybe with an inflation factor) into the future. I do the same thing in my role as a Snr Quant.
It's like someone entering current IO price, current oil price, coking coal price etc for BHP. The NPV of BHP would be woeful as well.
I would like to see "devils advocates" like these in the shares I hold. The rebound will be exciting!
Santos Worthless, page-4
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