Minimum Capex $600 Million
Confirmed 70% Funding = $420 Million
Required from IPO = $180 Million
IPO initial estimate = $180-$200 Milllion
A successful $200 Mil from IPO would now require 66.666% funding
My Speculative Guess...
$200mil / $0.25 = 800,000,000 shares
ORD Retain 26% = 208 million shares or $52 million in value
NFC Retain 26% = 208 million shares or $52 million in value
IPO Shares available to Future investors = 384 million shares at $0.25 = $96 Mil
So with a cash shortfall of $104 mil (cash against ORD and NFC Holding) we would have to increase the value of the IPO available shares.
384 million shares for IPO x $0.525 = $201,600,000.
The value for the IPO @ $0.525 can be offset by 2 for 1 free attached listed options with conversion terms of say $0.75 in Dec 2015. (Intrinsic Options value at issue $0.1375c.)
My Expectations:
If this scenario worked, and we saw Insto??s and other major investors take 70% (268,000,000 shares) of the 384,000,000 shares offered in the IPO would leave a total of 115,200,000 shares for smaller investors or 3024 investors with $20,000.00 each gaining 38095 shares. With the prospects of China/Chinese investors I think this is very achievable.
Am I on the right track?Kor am I totally out of my depth ?? The workings may be right in principle but I??m not sure the numbers add up.
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