Hi all,With my prognosticator hat firmly attached this is what I...

Hi all,
With my prognosticator hat firmly attached this is what I see:
The bull rally continued higher this week, appears to be stagnating and is looking tired, but I still caution against bears initiating early long term short positions.
Firstly BBOZ has not turned up yet, you'd want to see a technical buy signal here first or risk lower prices and a draw down as the result of a poor entry. XVI the volatility index took a dip on Friday, closed on its lows and is technically in a short term down trend. This means fear has temporarily subsided, once again you want to see this ticking up before diving in with the big players and their exit strategy. The AUS200 CFD which is the instrument I play with and use for my analysis is still ticking up.
The chart below shows my position trading analysis at a snapshot, it includes 3 charts. Monthly to the left, weekly top right and daily chart bottom right. Price is bang smack in a monthly chart resistance zone, but candle is not closed, so does it respect it, reject it or blow through it? we need to wait till the end of the month for that answer. Weekly chart is making higher highs albeit losing steam, but the directional line is under price which suggests a bullish bias on the weekly until it is defeated. Daily chart which is the trigger time frame is still holding a bullish bias above its diagonal trend line and directional line with psar confirming the bullish short term trend. I personally would like to see all the above factors flip around and scream sell to me before entering the market for a long term short position trade entry. It will come, but not yet, I think patience is required for a bit longer imho.
For the bulls the short term bias is with you, but in saying that this only applies to short term intraday trades from here on and all bets are off if the weekly and daily directional lines are defeated by price. Good luck and happy trading to all....