I wasn't aware that it was a requirement to believe in TA to post here. I participate in this thread because I'm speculating on the XJO at the moment.
Also, I don't denigrate anyone here. If you or anyone else has taken offense at anything I've said (with the exception of ClarkKent), you have misunderstood my intent. Having said that, feel free to put me on your ignore list if my presence here offends you.
As far as predictions go, I'm open to a diversity of opinions. One thing I like about speculating is that regardless of the reasoning that led to the bet, if you get it right, they let you keep the money anyway. In other words, coming to right answer by the wrong reasons pays as handsomely as coming to the right answer by sound reasoning.
It's not true in science, for example. In science, you have to have the right answer and the right reasoning -- or no banana. Science is therefore a much harder game than trading, imho.
If you're predictions were accurate a week ago, congratulations. I hope you made some money. As you may be aware, I've been saying consistently the market is headed back to 6400, based on my style of analysis, which does not involve TA. Betting long XJO over the last two weeks, I've been making money too! So we can disagree about our methods of analysis, but still make money. How cool is that? :-)
I believe we are in the final "mopping up" stages of the correction, which will lead to a resumption of the bull market for at least the short to medium term. I do not find any of the "it's 1929/1987 all over again" TA in the least persuasive, since it does seem to based purely on TA rather than any fundamental analysis.
However, I do find it interesting to follow the discussions -- I'm genuinely curious about the mindsets of people with world-views very different to mine. My mind does boggle a bit when people start adding astrology/numerology/Fibonacci stuff into the mix, particularly when some of these people are apparently quite well educated.
I find it quite intriguing that educated people might take some of this stuff seriously, as so far I haven't been able to at all, and I want to find out more about what they think. I think I've been up front about that.
I do not believe the subprime problems will result a recession in Australia. The fundamentals just don't support that. I'm backing the fundamentals, and so far, so good (I know, famous last words). :-)
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