Surely big market makers in ASX200 , would be playing against...

Surely big market makers in ASX200 , would be playing against recent order flow, not longer held positions.

So that would go to your bear trap picture.

They took the recent long positions via stop crashing and then Friday night added to those long positions .

So what we see Monday is upward action, magnified by the closing of short positions.

However there must be near collapse of small players prepared to play the SPI200 futures market.