Racenet Raceday - Laurie Sainsbury’s tip –Saturday, May 11
The Racenet Raceday product covers all the major Australian meetings and here's a free tip for each of Saturday's metropolitan meetings. Popular Melbourne contributor Laurie Sainsbury has provided his thoughts on the meeting at Caulfield, while we also have Rosehill, Eagle Farm, Morphettville and Belmont covered.
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EAGLE FARM
Race 6 - Landfill Chairman's Hcp - 2100m - 3:05pm (local time) Betting Confidence: 75% Top Pick: Margins (8) Danger: Sysmo (FR) (14) Trifecta: Quintessential (NZ) (3) Multi: Dolly Dolly (NZ) (11), Carrick (NZ) (6), Poste Restante (NZ) (10), Saint Encosta (9) Tip Comment: This time last year he just missed in the Rough Habit Plate and his last win under 58.5kg was dominant. He's the best stayer in Queensland so he should prove hard to beat. Sysmo did enough behind Kellini last start. With a soft run midfield he'll be in the finish. Quintessential brings the best form but has to overcome the horror gate. Quaddie – top 5. Race Comment: Outside of the emergencies Topping is the only real speed in the race. Again expect early moves to ensure at least a good even speed. Standout Margins from the next three in quinellas and load up behind them watching for any market moves on the Kiwis. MORPHETTVILLE
Race 4 - Centaurea Stakes - 2009m - 2:15pm (local time) Betting Confidence: 75% Top Pick: Epingle (NZ) (6) Danger: Lake Sententia (2) Trifecta: Friday Hussy (3) Multi: Freezy (IRE) (10), Secret Liaison (1), Stella Lante (16), Blue Ribbon (9) Tip Comment: Epingle is an in-form mare that has finished close-up in Group company at past three runs when hitting the line hard on each occasion so the rise here to 2009 metres is perfect. Lake Sententia is a talented mare that's nearing a win. Peaks here and is another that will appreciate a rise in trip. Friday Hussy brought up winning hat-trick with a hard fought win last start. Drawn ideally to figure prominently. Race Comment: Tabulated, Essence, Friday Hussy and Blue Ribbon will all look to push forward ensuring race is run at a genuine tempo. Siding ever so slightly with Epingle over Lake Sententia and both should appreciate how race will be run. Backing Epingle basically because she is slightly better value. ROSEHILL
Race 6 - Fujitsu Air Lord Mayors Cup – 2000m - 3:15pm (local time) Betting Confidence: 70% Top Pick: Permit (GB) (1) Danger: Pirate Bay (GB) (13) Trifecta: Moriarty (IRE) (5) Multi: Beaten Up (GB) (2), Fibrillation (4), Hoylonny (6), Strike The Stars (NZ) (10) Tip Comment: Chris Waller dominates this race with four live hopes. Permit is over the odds considering he is the class runner. Runner-up behind Tremec and Julienas during the autumn before striking traffic when flopped in the Chairman's Quality. Forgive that run and he's the one to beat here yet double-figures are on offer. Pirate Bay is improving with every run since coming to Australia. Moriarty is set to peak third-up. Quaddie - top 6. Race Comment: A big field with several on-pace runners should ensure a truly run 2000 metres. Maules Creek and Fibrillation to settle one/two with Crafty Irna, Winning Glory and Zedlion all handy. Several others can surprise and go forward - Fiumicino a possible candidate. Caulfield - Laurie Sainsbury's tip
Race 7 - Peter Street Hcp (89) – 2000m - 3:32pm (local time) Betting Confidence: 70% Top Pick: Harry Trimbole (NZ) (11) Danger: Fulgur (GB) (9) Trifecta: Midsummer Sun (GB) (4) Multi: Dowager Queen (NZ) (10), Success Dostta (2), The Big Steel (7), Laspiel (8) Tip Comment: Liked the way Harry Trimbole got home last start when third to Oriental Ruby. He's fitter and down on 51kg must be a good hope. The import Fulgur will be strong late. Two runs here have been solid. Midsummer Sun is another import that won its first Aussie start at Morphettville. Up a bit in grade here, however, he should improve. Quaddie – top 4. Race Comment: Dowager Queen gets to a distance where she can win, her only run this distance here ran second to Gliding and should have won. Remember, she ran second to Mosheen in the VRC Oaks. Success Dosta won a Hurdle trial and then won at Morphettville, those jumps sharpened him up. The Big Steel showed a glimpse of form last start at Morphettville when fourth, that was his best run in 16 months. Laspiel raced wide last start and may place. BELMONT
Race 8 - Ld Total (Bm72+) – 1600m - 4:30pm (local time) Betting Confidence: 80% Top Pick: The Underworld (NZ) (5) Danger: Big Attitude (2) Roughie: Monumental (11) Multi: Flag Officer (6), Morsecodian (1) Tip Comment: The Underworld has not raced since a courageous second to Red Mercedes four weeks ago. He sat wide throughout over the 1600 metres and never quit fighting in the run home. Bar plates come off which is often a sign a horse is now over a foot problem. Big Attitude has strong second-up stats and comes into this off a first-up third over 1400 metres when he posted by far the best finishing sectional. Big chance. Monumental is fully fit now after three runs in and represents value. Quaddie - top 3. Race Comment: Morsecodian will jump and roll along as usual, so the pace should be at least even. Flag Officer and Acheatin' Smile also come across to sit handy and ensure there is no loafing. The likes of Verdello Blue, Monumental and Titan Knight are next with The Underworld, Dark Miss and World Domination worse than midfield. Big Attitude is among the backmarkers and will have plenty of ground to make up. The Underworld looks well in with just 56kg and is worth a solid wager.
