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01/06/18
18:38
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Originally posted by seak
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I have different numbers for spi Low of 4700 was on 9/2/16 (sorry for being pedantic) and the R up to the 18/3/16 was to 5214 making the range 514. The high in March 18 came in on the 12/3 (6032 March, 6024 June) making that 530 Trade, 762 Cal making the R 1332 or 1324, always tricky trying to make sense of ranges around change of contract time.
The spi fell 338 points from the 12/3.
A much simpler use of time picked the high of 6136 on the 15/5.
Low 3722 8/9/11 to 4700 low 9/2/16 was 1143 TRADE + 50% TIME 572 TRADE GAVE 17/5/18 (one day out).
PRICE;
R up from 4700 to 5569 was 869 went down 540 (good number 50% of 1080 number of fusion) into Trump low.
Trump low 5029 to 6136 H = 1107
869 x 1.272 (Being sq root 1.618)= 1105.4, just off.
Also Crash LOW 3111 to 6136 = 3025 and 3024 is 144 x 16.
The problem with finding these ratios are that you (me anyway) normally find them too far after the event, though it can confirm that the TIME & PRICE has nailed a significant CIT. There are so many combination and permutations of the ratios etc, if you look hard and long enough you can pick a number out of the air and find a reason, though the one above was relatively straight fwd.
Possible targets for this move down for the spi, I am thinking 466/7 as this range and multiple of 233 (fib multiple) have occurred a few times since the 3722 Low in august 2011.
The best ratio using the 1.272 was calling the ATH of spi at 6880.
A high of 5407 came in nicely on time and price, it then fell 666 points.
The reciprocal 1/1.272 is .786. now if 5407 is .786 of where the spi was headed.
5407 x 1.272 =6878, 2 ticks off.
Cheers
seak
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There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics. You can twist and create ratios and extensions, that in retrospect fit any given set of data. When someone can predict future price movements using such " tools", with a good degree of statistical certainty, then you are onto a huge winner. However I can assure you that this goal will remain elusive. Markets are inherently wild and unpredictable, so first accepting that, allows traders to develop a system that could work more often than fail.