Anyone now holding CVN is taking a huge punt on APUS results.
APUS has a 23% likely "commercial success "rate.
Less than PAVO - which was around 30%.
Way, way less than "sure thing" BUFFALO.
I recall CVN saying BUFFALO had a 80% "commercial success rate".
If APUS comes in and is commercial / able to be tied back like PAVO - I guess the stock slingshots back to 43-45c, maybe more - even with recent dilution.
Happy Days. Fortune favours the brave.
But in the case of a duster, like BUFFALO - its back to 20c & management would still have to work out how to fully fund Dorado FID. In that scenario expect more cap raises & further dilution..
Management were very quick to hedge their asses (and their ongoing renumeration) with a cap raise after PAVO success (which shafted long term holders).
I guess 23% odds of success was not all that appealing to them.. If they really believed in APUS they would have put their jobs on the line and delayed a "cap raise" until after APUS results..
So maybe say a prayer - all CVN shareholders are at the mercy of a 23% bet on APUS drill bit..
Good luck to all holders.. You are braver than CVN management..
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