Cosmo your suggestion that the SP could fall to 10 cents in the event of a Apus duster is just plain silly. I have been looking at Euroz most recent valuation of the worth to the CVN share price of the oil phase of the Dorado development. Their low case is 59 cents per share, which assumes an oil price of us $65 per barrel, an exchange rate of US 75 cents, a discount rate of 10% and no oil in Pavo 2. Assume an oil price of us $80 and a further 40 million barrels in PAVO 2 and the valuation of the Dorado oil phase increases to 80 cents per share. These valuations are based on very conservative assumptions and dont involve finding even 1 barrel in Apus. And that is just the valuation of the DORADO oil phase and doesnt include valuing cash on hand (7 cents) the phoenix gas reserves (6cents per share) the dorado gas phase (7 cents per share) or the value of the untested exploration assets including Apus.
As far as Apus is concerned the Euroz modelling suggests that every oil reserves increment of 1 million barrels adds 1.5 cents per share to their CVN valuation. The predicted oil reservoir at APus if it is oil bearing is 235 million barrels of which about 70 million barrels would belong to CVN . Do the math.
CVN Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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