Say Your Prayers / It all comes down to APUS, page-52

@Peter Swain

Yes, I remember your previous statements from a few years ago, about AWE. I was also a former shareholder, but I sold out before the TO event - at the time, I couldn't understand why the SP of AWE kept being pushed down. Now, I do.

At CVN, we are also experiencing this.

We have been a victim of this, for several years now (especially during the pandemic years).

As to the other issues you brought up, instead of posting something new, I will repost what I wrote (with a few changes) to a private mate:

This pretty much confirms we are selling a % of Dorado (I reckon it will be 10%). Start from 1.30 mins mark of the video.

https://themarketherald.com.au/carnarvon-energy-asxcvn-raises-70m-for-dorado-field-development-2022-03-29/?__hstc=51568950.120657144b4fde7814039cbca15b54d5.1648546168557.1648694608001.1648701157827.13&__hssc=51568950.55.1648701157827&__hsfp=2732465646

Our share of the Capex (20% of $2b) is equal to USD $400m. At 60% debt, that still mean we need USD $160m or AUD $213m for our 20%.

Clearly from the above figures, we have not raised enough.

This can only mean we are selling a % of the Dorado permit. I am going to assume half of our 20% interest.

Given the higher oil prices at the moment, we might get USD $5 to $10 per barrel at FID, which could bring in USD $100m at the upper end.

Plus we might get reimbursements and contingent payment for success Apus. That should mean we have enough cash to last til 2026.

And even if we get to share 10% of Apus, which will add another 23m barrels upon success. Plus 13m barrels at Pavo North and 10m barrels at Pavo South (representing our 30% share), we could end up with additional 46m barrels.

And then add our 10% Dorado share, we could end up with more than 50m barrels of oil (not including gas) as our overall share.

That would put us within the top 5 producers in Australia.

I would think BPT or a Japanese/Korean company would be running the numbers at the moment. One of them just might make a cheeky offer at $1b or USD $750m for our whole company. Given we have about $150m cash at CVN, it would suggest they will be paying net $850m AUD.

Apus discovery within the next few months, is going to be the key to kick this off. IMHO.

Now, we just need oil prices to stay around USD $100 per barrel for the next 6 months.

Please note, all the above comments are my own personal opinion.

It is not intended as financial advice.

As always, DYOR.