Good analysis SplitFusionAnother way to validate this and I...

Good analysis SplitFusion

Another way to validate this and I agree on your assumptions would be to look at the value associated with NAL and Authier and convert that into Market Cap

With that in mind, we know NAL has sunk approx $400-500m into their operation so the market would be associating that number as value. In simplistic ways on a 1:1 basis so discarding any FOMO the market might attach to a producing operation.

We also know for the feasibility study for Authier is that the value of that project (ie profit) is approx $180m

So let's say we conservatively add $400 + $180 to arrive at $680m as the MC for the combined SYA+NAL and as long as your assumptions hold.

Dividing that $680m by the current SOI of 2.2b will give us approx 31c per share valuation. I would also deduct say 5c per share for costs of running the operation (debt, opex, capex etc) to arrive at a range of 25-30c in day 2-3 years time.

I would expect though that SYA would take an incremental path towards that valuation. I think the first hurdle would 3c as per the value attached to the recent CRs. Then I'd expect the value to reach around 8c which was the first ceiling reached around 2017 when SYA announced going forward with Authier. Then around 14c being the top of a non-producer value the market was willing to pay at the height of the lithium boom. After that it's clear sky based on achievement of goals towards production and sales as per your post above.

Either way, my thinking correlated with yours. provided they succeed with NAL of course. If they don't then it's probably going to top out at around 6-8c and will based solely on Authier. IMO