A short musing on probability of trial outcomes and their impact...

A short musing on probability of trial outcomes and their impact on SP;

Possible trial scenarios of equal probability; including order, assuming trials equally important and no correlation in results. Each scenario has an attributable probability of 12.5%;

Trial result order Trial result order
1) + - - 5) - - +
2) + + - 6) - + +
3) + - + 7) - + -
4) - - - 8) + + +

Now as it is likely that some correlation exists, these scenarios may be skewed towards either positive or negatively dominant groups (1, 4, 5, 7 OR 2, 3, 6, 8). Exact probability is undefined and subject to opinion at this stage.

The resulting SP action from most of these scenarios will be wild. My point is, SP action will be heavily dependent on the order of results and not their overall impact on the business. Given time the SP will reflect the impact on the business but for those educated there is practically a guaranteed opportunity to attain favorable probability.