scenarios?

I must say that I don't get the ongoing downtrend in HFA. 3 scenarios that have been exercising my mind:

- Former staff shareholders exiting (JP and others), with Deleware & co happy to patiently mop up the shares.

- Aussie instos exiting as local hedge fund sentiment is bad e.g. Some Australian super funds that did invest in hedge funds have now exited. Most wouldn't be HFA investors, but more a comment on local sentiment. Longer term, and if HFA continues with a minimal marketing presence locally, then LHP will dominate the value and I expect there will be a question mark regarding the relevance of a local listing, vs US listing

- The financials are weaker than I have interpreted e.g. if not much one-off costs (e.g. redundancies) in the half year, so the skinny profit is a guide to the future. However, whilst not disclosed, I assume there was reasonable one-off costs. Also I still expect we will see performance fees coming through in the second half result. Perhaps this is overly optimistic.

Of the above, scenario 1 is good, 2 is ok also but will take longer to reverse and 3 is bad.

Any thoughts?