scenarios, page-7

dontgetcaught,

Sorry for slow response, I'm not too regular on the posts.

For my rationale with buying into SBL, my great lesson was one of thinking I could leverage the fundamentals to time a technical trade, without realising that management might be a factor. Those were big mistakes for me, but they were mine to make.

When I bought in, I'd punched out of a profitable trade with ABU, and expected it to retrace while expecting SBL to climb a bit more. My trading plan was to twin my trades, make a small profit on SBL and get back into ABU at lower prices. I never left SBL and while ABU did retrace to about 0.034, I missed its run up to 0.078.

So for me, I confused what would have been a successful technical strategy with fundamental expectations. In hindsight, I should have sold as soon as I went into the red on the charts.

But then .... The gold pour didn't excite me too much, but I did see it as a possible catalyst. The CR didn't worry me too much, because behind the gold pour was going to be a profit making operation, and seemed to need a bit more of a capital injection. The expected annual throughput and glitches in commissioning didn't worry me too much, because the drill results were pending. I think the drill results were (and are) very positive, and posted at the time that the spread of drill holes combined with the grade at reasonably shallow depths was a great result.

And meanwhile, the SP kept going down and I'd already passed through my mental stop triggers without pulling them. So I broke another rule and didn't take the loss when I should have.

Not a dissimilar story to yours, and plenty of others posting back then were either in long or short but pulled their triggers sooner.

Like Leokl, I still think the operation has fantastic potential, but now I know that that doesn't matter much if those employed to manage it don't have much interest.

I'm pretty happy with the outcome, although my package was only small by investor standards, because I've learned a lot.

Interesting though that a very similar tale is playing out with ABU in terms of fundamental expectations and stock price (if you don't watch it they've firmed up a 3.2m resource and price continues to fall).

I don't want LG shares, but they do seem an aggressive company. My only fear now that they also have CGT in sights is that the SBL operation does not get the focus that it warrants. We'll have to wait and see ...

I've learned a lot from SBL. I'll continue to hold because of all the unknown factors, because I'm already an investor now with a loss, and because its fun to learn.

And I expect that if LG ever get to 90%, we'll see a 1/34 compulsory aquisition (not cash, but hopefully someone can confirm what can and can't be determined in a compulsory aquisition). Shame the LG share price could be down to 0.20 by then, but I guess it could also be $1.50!!

All that said, I do know that I woudn't go to bed with Oliver and leave my wallet on the bedside table ...

All the best with your investment/trading decisions for the rest of 2012. I'm still interested in some possible scenarios ... even something out of the blue!

COLCOM