Scheme B voting assumptions

So as I pointed out last thread, Scheme A is a red herring - needing 90.5% of the remaining 97m shares to vote YES.

Scheme B is the only game, BGH and the directors have known this all along of course.

Here's my quick thoughts on how the votes might flow in Scheme B and what that means; round figures again.

196m shares / votes in total.

78m controlled by VRC and its principals. Around 600k by the independent directors. Let's call it 80m from this group all voting YES.
10m Mr Sethu - from what I've read and been told by substantial holders, he's a Burke / Kirby man. I'll assume he votes YES.
12m Spheria - I've enquired as to their position and have been told they refuse to make their position known. Let's assume they vote YES

102m YES votes so far. 20m NO votes from Mittleman, 122m allocated, leaving 74m votes "undecided".

75% of the 196m needed for YES to get up = 147m total, less the 102m already assumed leaves 45m further YES votes needed from the remaining 74m = 60.8%

25% of the 196m needed for NO to get up = 49m total, less the 20m already assumed leaves 29m further NO votes needed from the remaining 74m = 39.2%

Summary - even if both Spheria and Sethu are voting YES (and there is certainly no guarantee they will), it's basically a 60/40 game with the remaining around 74m shares.

If Spheria happen to vote NO, then it goes to 77% / 23% (YES / NO) of the remaining 74m shares. No wonder they won't outline their position, they're holding a lot of cards in this deal.

A lot of power in the hands of just a few, but from what I can make it, it's going to be close - perhaps "the rest of us" do have a voice after all?

They certainly won't be getting my shares at $2.22 and I honestly feel most holders (insto and retail) would be in the red at that price.

In my opinion, watching the market depth this week, somebody is acquiring - looking to increase their votes. There have been large orders in the past few days starting at $2.18 on Monday, which was only partly filled. It then moved to $2.20 yesterday and today is at $2.23. My assumption is that a series of small sell trades above the likely $2.22 offer price are designed to pique interest and shake small holders out of their shares - eventually selling down to meet the large order. Trades got up to $2.27 today and now getting back toward the large order at $2.23. If that's the strategy, it hasn't worked just yet, but I would guess that the circa 1m shares traded since Monday are all now in the same hands. I wouldn't be surprised to see a form 604 pop up shortly.