Since MQG and Carlyle declared their offer best and final they...

Since MQG and Carlyle declared their offer best and final they cannot immediately start a new process without violating ASIC prohibitions on market manipulation through false and misleading statements. I think ASIC RG180 is the relevant guide on what "best and final" declarations mean.

I think they could likely quietly build their stake to around 20% and then in 4 months' (using my rather poor memory) time they are free to rebid. This time most likely as a Takeover. However this wait period could be circumvented if some other bidder materialises.

I also think the guys running the deal from Caliburn will be paid and quietly told not to come back- because they screwed up royally. RDF would pay them to remain quiet in order to blame the mess on Chris Cooper and preserve the jobs of the CEO and Board.

Macquarie also screwed up with its SURPRISE! HERE WE ARE FELLAS WE'RE JUST COMING TO SAY HELLO" substantial shareholder notice filing. Before they crossed 5% they should have sounded out Chris Cooper as he was the obvious roadblock to the deal- but they didn't. without Chris a scheme would not work. With Chris it would. Without Chris you would need to go run a semi-hostile transaction - that means a takeover. Instead of walking into the boardroom and saying I've taken care of your Chris Cooper problem- vote for me please; MQG allied themselves with those Chris wanted to do in.

So the question is how much of this is hindsight talking and how much is just bad advice and ignorance of M&A tactics from a track record entirely based on rising markets? I would say if you don't seek to understand the motives of the substantial shareholders you can't give good advice.


Anyway, now the focus is on Chris Cooper to show who his "other bidders" are who want $3.00 plus per share. I see that as speculative and self serving to the point of having no credibility without further details being published.

I think there will be some dark days for shareholders in the short term as the M&A arb funds / shareholders liquidate their positions forcing the stock down.

It is interesting that RDF is now c25c above its c$1.55 share price when MQG announced its bid. This is around 16% up. In comparison the overall market (all ords) is 13% up. So you could argue RDF is oversold now.

Fundamentally, M&A is just noise when viewing a company's operations but RDF has proven itself to be worthy of attention from financial buyers. So I would be expecting a northward drift in the share price over the medium term and a short term buying opportunity has the fallout from the Scheme unwinds.

At this level I say RDF is a buy on fundamental strength as well as the prospect of new bidders and a renewed bid down the line from MQG / Carlyle. In theory if RDF was attractive to Carlyle it would at least be in the same basic ball park other PE funds.

Caliburn would have already spoken to these PE firms and they would have all declined for one reason or another (otherwise we would have heard about it). The most logical reason would be an ongoing bid with hostile shareholders. However that can be handled.