This comment from http://www.dailyfutures.com/grains/ on December 23 ... it seems that in the end AWB profits will be hit over time because of wheat prices.
Overall, wheat is a chronic bear market and (I get no joy to say it, but) wheat farming has a bleak future. Wheat (like sugar) is grown on every continent, but Antarctica. Farm productivity continues to increase, but consumption is not growing. If not for occasional weather problems, wheat prices would trend endlessly lower. As of November 27, 2005, the final crop progress report of the year, the USDA said that 52% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 76% a year ago.
Foreign (wheat) production rises due primarily to larger crops in Australia, Canada, China, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan... Consumption is up in a number of countries, with the largest month-to-month increases occurring in Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, Canada, and Uzbekistan.
USDA's World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates. December 9, 2005.
Record global production for the 2004-05 crop year has significantly increased (wheat) stocks. In the face of ample supplies, prices remain under downward pressure and are expected to generally move lower over the next year. Bank of Montreal's Commodity Price Report. September 21, 2005
AWB Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
